One of the most common questions we receive is where are rates going, here is our take on both fixed and variable rates over the next few weeks.
After two rate increases since July it was clear that the BoC has shut the door on anymore rate changes over the next few months. Stephen Poloz’s comments to the CBC on October 26th, clearly stated this by saying that ‘Lot of things that have to come together’ before any increase. The market is not pricing in another increase until March, by then we should know the status of the NAFTA talks and impact of the increase in Q3 2017.
For the past month bond yields have been flat as there has not been much overly positive or negative news to move them in either direction. The status of the NAFTA talks will be the main driver of any change in yields over the next few months; however, with talks scheduled until 2018 this will not be resolved quickly and I expect a holding pattern to emerge until their conclusion.
Shawn Stillman, CPA, CA
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